On Sunday night Jake Arrieta threw the sixth no-hitter of the 2015 season. In case you missed it, I wrote a retro-recap of the game. Six no-hitters is a lot. There were five in 2014. A no-hitter is supposed to be an almost impossible event, but they seem to be happening more often than they did 10 or 15 years ago. This week at Beyond the Box Score I wrote an article examining the frequency of no-hitters over the last few seasons, and what is leading to the increased frequency. Using data from the last 55 years, which included other high-frequency no-hitter periods, I assessed the extent to which run environment (average runs scored per game) is a predictor of a no-hitter happening.
From my work, it turns out that run environment does a good job explaining when we are more likely to see no-hitters, specifically low run environments lead to more no-hitters. This makes sense. When things are good for pitchers (i.e., low run environment), things are bad for batters, and that combination can be coordinated (often through randomness) to produce hitless nights more often than when the opposite is true. While the average fan probably prefers more runs being scored, in these times of low offensive output at least they can enjoy the higher possibility of a remarkable pitching outing happening.
Head over to the site to read the full analysis: What’s the deal with all these no-hitters?
Chris Teeter 