So many No-Nos of late. What is going on?

On Sunday night Jake Arrieta threw the sixth no-hitter of the 2015 season. In case you missed it, I wrote a retro-recap of the game. Six no-hitters is a lot. There were five in 2014. A no-hitter is supposed to be an almost impossible event, but they seem to be happening more often than they did 10 or 15 years ago. This week at Beyond the Box Score I wrote an article examining the frequency of no-hitters over the last few seasons, and what is leading to the increased frequency. Using data from the last 55 years, which included other high-frequency no-hitter periods, I assessed the extent to which run environment (average runs scored per game) is a predictor of a no-hitter happening.

From my work, it turns out that run environment does a good job explaining when we are more likely to see no-hitters, specifically low run environments lead to more no-hitters. This makes sense. When things are good for pitchers (i.e., low run environment), things are bad for batters, and that combination can be coordinated (often through randomness) to produce hitless nights more often than when the opposite is true. While the average fan probably prefers more runs being scored, in these times of low offensive output at least they can enjoy the higher possibility of a remarkable pitching outing happening.

Head over to the site to read the full analysis: What’s the deal with all these no-hitters?

Retro-Blog: Jake Arrieta’s No-Hitter on Sunday Night Baseball

Sunday night marked a moment in history, as a female analyst was in the booth for ESPN on Sunday Night Baseball. Jessica Mendoza, a four-time first team All-American softball player at Stanford University, joined John Kruk (ugh) and Dan Shulman to call the Cubs, Dodgers game. She was covering for Curt Schilling, who again decided to say something ridiculously dumb on Twitter. I mention Mendoza’s baseball-related credentials above, not because I think that they matter for having her in the booth, but because for some they do. My opinion is that sports networks need to move away from the current model of sticking as many ex-players as possible in the booth, regardless of intellect or insight, and move toward a model of having thought-provoking, and fun analysis from people who may not have played the game at the highest level, but understand it very well and can communicate complex ideas to a diverse audience.

The game ended up being quite something. Cubs’ pitcher Jake Arrieta no-hit the high-powered Dodger offense. With the no-hitter happening and something unique being included in the booth to call it, I decided to write a retro-recap of the night.

Clayton Kershaw’s Near Perfection

Last night was yet another example of why baseball is so great. The ho-hum Blue Jays vs. Yankees game finished around 10:00pm. I was pretty tired after finishing up some work and strongly considering heading to bed. I decide to check in on my Twitter feed and find that it is full of Tweets that say something along the lines of ‘Kershaw is Kerhsawing’. Then I get a text message from a friend telling me to turn on the Dodger game.

I turn on the game and find that Kershaw is perfect through 5+ (I can’t remember exactly when I turned it on) with a whole bunch of strikeouts. He is just cruising through the Rockies lineup. His curveball is just ridiculous. Suddenly my fatigue is gone and I am overcome with excitement about the potential of watching a Perfect Game.

Then in the 7th, Hanley Ramirez turned a routine groundball into an adventure. No Perfect Game. Disappointing. But Kershaw still looks un-hittable. So I am glued to the game.

The Ramirez blip did not faze Kershaw and in the end he was un-hittable. Kershaw struck out 15 batters in the most dominant No-hitter of all time (well since 1914). His GameScore of 102 ranks first:

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	Pit	GSc
1	Clayton Kershaw	2014-06-18	LAD	COL	W 8-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	15	107	102
2	Matt Cain	2012-06-13	SFG	HOU	W 10-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	14	125	101
3	Nolan Ryan	1991-05-01	TEX	TOR	W 3-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	2	16	122	101
4	Sandy Koufax	1965-09-09	LAD	CHC	W 1-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	14	113	101
5	Randy Johnson	2004-05-18	ARI	ATL	W 2-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	13	117	100
6	Nolan Ryan	1973-07-15	CAL	DET	W 6-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	4	17		100
7	Warren Spahn	1960-09-16	MLN	PHI	W 4-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	2	15		100
8	Felix Hernandez	2012-08-15	SEA	TBR	W 1-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	12	113	99
9	Nolan Ryan	1990-06-11	TEX	OAK	W 5-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	2	14	130	99
10	Don Wilson	1967-06-18	HOU	ATL	W 2-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	3	15		99

Take away the ‘No-Hitter’ caveat and Kershaw’s performance is the second most dominant performance by a starting pitcher since 1914 (at least according to GameScore):

Rk	Player	Date	Tm	Opp	Rslt	App,Dec	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	Pit	GSc
1	Kerry Wood	1998-05-06	CHC	HOU	W 2-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	1	0	0	0	20	122	105
2	Clayton Kershaw	2014-06-18	LAD	COL	W 8-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	15	107	102
3	Matt Cain	2012-06-13	SFG	HOU	W 10-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	14	125	101
4	Nolan Ryan	1991-05-01	TEX	TOR	W 3-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	2	16	122	101
5	Sandy Koufax	1965-09-09	LAD	CHC	W 1-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	14	113	101
6	Brandon Morrow	2010-08-08	TOR	TBR	W 1-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	1	0	0	2	17	137	100
7	Randy Johnson	2004-05-18	ARI	ATL	W 2-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	0	13	117	100
8	Curt Schilling	2002-04-07	ARI	MIL	W 2-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	1	0	0	2	17	127	100
9	Nolan Ryan	1973-07-15	CAL	DET	W 6-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	4	17		100
10	Nolan Ryan	1972-07-09	CAL	BOS	W 3-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	1	0	0	1	16		100
11	Warren Spahn	1960-09-16	MLN	PHI	W 4-0	SHO9 ,W	9.0	0	0	0	2	15		100

An incredible performance. One of the most dominant performances in the history of baseball. Made all the better by having Vin Scully on the call.

I am so glad that I got to see this.